On the 16th of June 2020, the Global Research Forum on Diaspora and Transnationalism [GRFDT] held a virtual panel discussion on the topic “Will there be Brain Drain Again post COVID-19?”
Dr Alan Gamlen, Associate Professor of Geography at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia and a long-standing Research Associate at Oxford University’s Centre of Migration, Policy and Society, discussed how post COVID global mobility will look like. He began his address by acknowledging that the nature of migration mobility and brain drain post COVID-19 will depend on the decisions that are yet to be made .Dr Gamlen made a note that to understand these patterns of mobility, we will have to “predict three things: demand for migration, supply of would be immigrants and openness or restrictiveness of migration policies.”
Need for Immigrant Laborers
Dr. Gamlen discussed how immigration trends might change post COVID-19 by posing pertinent questions and predicting the answers. His first question was, “Will destination countries need labor immigration?” His answer was affirmative. However, he noted that there will be massive changes in hiring patterns for immigrants as COVID-19 has had a dire impact on the economies of countries. It has led to mass retrenchments thereby increasing unemployment rate in countries.
“There will be massive political pressure to hire natives over migrants”: Dr.Alan Gamlen.
Labor market availability for immigrants will not only depend on skill but on the availability of jobs rejected by natives. But in the light of economic slowdown, recession and International Monetary Fund predicting the worst downturn since the Great Economic Depression of 1930s, companies are going to have a large recruitment pool of unemployed natives whom they will be considering first.
Differing Impact of Pandemic on Labor Market
While detailing the possibility of less recruitment of migrant laborer, Dr. Gamlen also highlighted that the impact of pandemic on labor markets are going to differ based on skill labor. The impact on migrants shall be least felt for those countries were migrants are predominantly employed in high and low skilled jobs classified as ‘essential’, such as health care and food processing. Instead, the medium skilled jobs, like manufacturing, retail and tourism, which are classified as ‘non-essential’ shall face troubles in recruiting migrants.
Changes in Migration Patterns post COVID-19.
Dr Gamlen believes that voluntary migration will possibly take a back seat for a while in the post COVID-19 era but involuntary migration will continue or may even see a rise as people would be fleeing political upheavals and livelihood collapse in the countries of origin. Dr Gamlen foresees“ a period of unpredictable migration flows, with some places sending less migrants than normal and some places sending more than normal.”
He concluded his address by noting that while there is a current demand for health workers, the post COVID-19 era will not necessary be a tug of war for the health workers. He added that“ the pandemic is throwing sand in the gears of international migration and all forms of global mobility”, and instead of classifying this as “game changing”, he perceives this as contributing to “deceleration” of migration.
Inomusa Ndlovu
A Zimbabwean, creative writer, feminist and a student of M.A in Political Science at the University of Lucknow, India. She can be reached on twitter @InomusaCN.